Barring a bizarre and unexpected return to the Dodgers, this is a farewell post to Juan Pierre. This was never a personal attack on Mr. Pierre, who is by all accounts a great guy. This was just a place to vent about overvalued veterans. It was a place to discuss the clash of old and new ways of evaluating baseball talent. A place to discuss how much better power and patience are than speed. And mainly, a place to point out how silly using counting stats are to evaluate a player, especially one given more at bats than any other on the team.
For those following along, it was clear this blog was done in mid-2008. The arrival of Manny Ramirez (and the previous rise of Kemp and Ethier) put a final nail in the Juan Pierre playing-regularly coffin. Manny going down for PED abuse led to a brief resurgence in Pierre playing time and also a brief resurgence in the outfield starters controversy, as Pierre arguably had one of the greatest months of his career. Thank you Juan Pierre. Without you I am not sure the Dodgers make the playoffs, as the team was definitely psychologically vulnerable at that time. You picking up Manny's offensive production let the team regain its footing.
And thank you , Joe Torre, for having the common sense to understand that Super Pierre could not last forever. And he did not. That second month of replacing Manny was decidedly mediocre. The bench was where he belonged on the Manny-Dodgers, and Joe knew it.
So good luck, Juan. I don't know if the Sox will start you, bat you lead-off or what. From what little I saw looking around, it is not unreasonable that they put you in left field, with Rios in center, and Quentin in right. I will say one last time that Juan should never start any position except for centerfield. It is ridiculous to give up power from the left fielder. While Juan is a mediocre center fielder (because of his rubber arm) he actually stacks up ok offensively there. And some teams have really awful CFs. But move him to left and you are just shooting yourself in the foot. OK, that was the last time, Juan. I swear.
So let me end with our favorite crazy Juan Pierre conjecture: The Hall of Fame. Juan Pierre has 1663 hits over his career. If he were to make it to 3000 hits it would give everyone the tizzies and hizzies trying to keep him in or out of the Hall. Juan always had only an outside chance at this, riding mainly on his strongest virtue: his durability. The guy can play virtually every game. Being relegated to the bench cost Juan about 600 PAs during prime years, or probably around two hundred hits. So if he makes it to 2800 hits he knows who to blame (himself for signing an untradable contract). It also cost him about a hundred runs (he has scored 804 in his career).
Even under the best scenario, if Juan gets to bat lead-off and stays healthy, next season he is going to be 32 so he just can't have that many 200 hit seasons left in him. So let's say two years from now he is at 2063 hits and starts a long decline then. Playing 34-40, he will need to put
up ~950 hits over those 7 years where his playing time will be shrink, shrink, shrinking. Comparing him to another speedster who aged very well, Ricky Henderson. Ricky hit 816 hits over those years. Ricky was arguably the greatest lead-off hitter of all time, so Juan has a tough road to climb. I wish you luck, because if you could do it, that would be one crazy fun argument.
Excelsior!
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Getting Hard To Ignore
When last we left you kind and gentle reader, the monster mashing team of Kemp, Ethier, and Ramirez were in full effect and good ole Juan Pierre was riding a lot of pine. Well, the seasons turn turn turn and things look a fair bit different now. It turns out that Manny did in fact continue to be Manny and that means he also shoots 'roids into his private parts. Or used to. OK, I am not exactly clear on what he shot where, except he is clearly a fool for getting caught at this late date. In addition, Ethier has gotten ice cold and Kemp, while still rolling along ok, is not quite banging them out as often as we would hope.
So is the team in the doldrums, languishing away while we await the return of the ManRam? No, we are in first place. By a lot. Not only do we lead the NL West by 8.5 games, but we have the best record in all of baseball. We are 18 games above .500 after only two months. This team is kicking ass, taking names, and then kicking the ass of all those names.
And... as much as it pains me to say it... Juan Pierre deserves a lot of credit.
Yes, the pitching staff has been astonishingly good (2nd lowest ERA in MLB at 3.78). Yes, the Dodgers in general have been amazing at getting on base, a .375 clip that leads all of major league baseball.
But Juan Pierre was asked to step in and take over the position of future Hall-of-Famer[sic] Manny Ramirez, someone whose absence had the potential for causing a great deal of mental anxiety. One big losing streak and everyone might have started doubting themselves. What has Mr. Pierre done with these at bats?
How does .404/.469/.544 sound? Thats an OPS+ of 165. And it is not just luck, although he certainly has had that. His patience is improved a bit. More importantly, his power, which had appeared to be completely gone (he slugged .341 over the past two years), has jumped way up. And anecdotally I can say I have seen him hit far more balls hard, on-the-screws, and into the gap than I ever saw him hit before. You can knock out .050 points of lucky singles and he would still have an OPS over .900.
Now don't get me wrong. This is not about to become the Juan Pierre LoveWatch. His lifetime OPS is just over .700 and he has really only had two good years in his career (2001 and 2004), where he managed to get his OPS close to .800, so this kind of jump will simply not be sustainable. He only has 129 Plate Appearances so far this year. We will wait and see if he can keep up anything like this kind of hitting for the remaining month until Manny returns.
But we bashed and bashed and bashed poor Pierre for being an out machine and this year he has really come through in the clutch, so we give him kudos, props, and whatever else you want to toss his way. For the first time since the signing of the deal, I am not cringing to see him starting out there, even in Left Field.
Good job, Juan.
But know if Slappy McPopup returns, so will we.
Dun Dun DUN!
So is the team in the doldrums, languishing away while we await the return of the ManRam? No, we are in first place. By a lot. Not only do we lead the NL West by 8.5 games, but we have the best record in all of baseball. We are 18 games above .500 after only two months. This team is kicking ass, taking names, and then kicking the ass of all those names.
And... as much as it pains me to say it... Juan Pierre deserves a lot of credit.
Yes, the pitching staff has been astonishingly good (2nd lowest ERA in MLB at 3.78). Yes, the Dodgers in general have been amazing at getting on base, a .375 clip that leads all of major league baseball.
But Juan Pierre was asked to step in and take over the position of future Hall-of-Famer[sic] Manny Ramirez, someone whose absence had the potential for causing a great deal of mental anxiety. One big losing streak and everyone might have started doubting themselves. What has Mr. Pierre done with these at bats?
How does .404/.469/.544 sound? Thats an OPS+ of 165. And it is not just luck, although he certainly has had that. His patience is improved a bit. More importantly, his power, which had appeared to be completely gone (he slugged .341 over the past two years), has jumped way up. And anecdotally I can say I have seen him hit far more balls hard, on-the-screws, and into the gap than I ever saw him hit before. You can knock out .050 points of lucky singles and he would still have an OPS over .900.
Now don't get me wrong. This is not about to become the Juan Pierre LoveWatch. His lifetime OPS is just over .700 and he has really only had two good years in his career (2001 and 2004), where he managed to get his OPS close to .800, so this kind of jump will simply not be sustainable. He only has 129 Plate Appearances so far this year. We will wait and see if he can keep up anything like this kind of hitting for the remaining month until Manny returns.
But we bashed and bashed and bashed poor Pierre for being an out machine and this year he has really come through in the clutch, so we give him kudos, props, and whatever else you want to toss his way. For the first time since the signing of the deal, I am not cringing to see him starting out there, even in Left Field.
Good job, Juan.
But know if Slappy McPopup returns, so will we.
Dun Dun DUN!
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
A Recognition of What Is Already Evident
Juan Pierre is not a regular starting outfielder and therefore this snide and often rude blog really has no purpose. Back-up outfielder is really a perfect role for Mr. Pierre, despite what he or his agent might think. I hope he steals 20 bases coming off the bench.
I imagine Juan could even be a useful starter for a team with bugger-all for outfielders (compliments don't get much more back-handed than that) and I sincerely hope he gets a chance to prove that and that we don't have to pay all his salary to make that happen. He still has a lot of time and money left on that contract, though. If Juan were to make a sweet farewell we might note it here, but I find it highly unlikely that we would continue to hound the man. We are primarily Dodger fans and while the goal of getting people to recognize what baseball skills should be most valued is a laudable one, that quixotic quest is just not ours. We got other windmills to fry.
In the meantime, as of today the Dodger outfield (Ethier, Kemp, and Manny) have an OPS of 1.078. That is patently ridiculous. Individual players having the greatest seasons of their careers can manage that sort of number, but for three guys to average it among them? Yes, only 13 games. Yes, it will certainly drop. But if the three outfielders can just average .900 OPS... that is a lot of offense, especially assuming the rest of the team does something besides pick at their belly buttons.
Anyway, this poor blog was consistently criticized for being pessimistic and a bit of a buzzkill. I can tell you that right now we are thoroughly pumped up for this season and may just be getting our hopes up a bit. Go Dodger Blue to Infinity and Beyond (Possible Toy Story 3 tie-in???). So expect this blog to stay dark and get dusty, unless they start playing Juan everyday again.
Let us all pray to the Gods of Strong Hamstrings and Well Connected Shoulders.
Amen.
I imagine Juan could even be a useful starter for a team with bugger-all for outfielders (compliments don't get much more back-handed than that) and I sincerely hope he gets a chance to prove that and that we don't have to pay all his salary to make that happen. He still has a lot of time and money left on that contract, though. If Juan were to make a sweet farewell we might note it here, but I find it highly unlikely that we would continue to hound the man. We are primarily Dodger fans and while the goal of getting people to recognize what baseball skills should be most valued is a laudable one, that quixotic quest is just not ours. We got other windmills to fry.
In the meantime, as of today the Dodger outfield (Ethier, Kemp, and Manny) have an OPS of 1.078. That is patently ridiculous. Individual players having the greatest seasons of their careers can manage that sort of number, but for three guys to average it among them? Yes, only 13 games. Yes, it will certainly drop. But if the three outfielders can just average .900 OPS... that is a lot of offense, especially assuming the rest of the team does something besides pick at their belly buttons.
Anyway, this poor blog was consistently criticized for being pessimistic and a bit of a buzzkill. I can tell you that right now we are thoroughly pumped up for this season and may just be getting our hopes up a bit. Go Dodger Blue to Infinity and Beyond (Possible Toy Story 3 tie-in???). So expect this blog to stay dark and get dusty, unless they start playing Juan everyday again.
Let us all pray to the Gods of Strong Hamstrings and Well Connected Shoulders.
Amen.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Holy Fracking Shit!
Juan Pierre hits a -- you heard it right -- real, honest-to-god Home Run in Pittsburgh. His first as a Dodger and the 13th of his career.
You could knock me over with a wet paper sandwich bag.
Congrats, Juan! Your reward will be two months with no posts at the Outwatch.
This reward will be granted retroactively, of course.
You could knock me over with a wet paper sandwich bag.
Congrats, Juan! Your reward will be two months with no posts at the Outwatch.
This reward will be granted retroactively, of course.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Picking Scapegoats
Everyone knows the primary purpose of this blog is to blame everything that happens to the Dodgers on Juan Pierre.
OK, that's not true. The purpose of this blog is to point out that Juan Pierre is an overvalued player and should not be played or paid as much as he is. It just happens to be that when one spends all their time looking at the Dodger club through those particular goggles, it often ends up sounding like we blame everything on poor Pierre. Well, maybe Humma does, but I don't. As Humma has not deigned to post since opening day, we'll just leave him out of this for now.
I also don't blame everything on Ned Colletti. I found several of his trades truly baffling. Lugo? Navarro (now all-star Navarro) for a bag of balls? Loaiza? But none of those were team killers. Here is what has been team killing (or at least wounding): Jones, Schmidt, Furcal injured for most of their contracts (or, as in the case of Jones, playing as if they were horribly injured). I don't care how much money McCourt has, with 50 million a year tossed away it is amazing we have even a .500 ball club. The funny thing is, assuming Ned did his due diligence regarding injuries, I agreed with all three of those signings. Furcal, when healthy, is great. Both Jones and Schmidt were premier players signed to very short term contracts. It is difficult to fault Colletti for not predicting the future better. I wish Ned had pushed his managers harder to play the younger players, but generally I still find his term at GM mediocre with a healthy does of unluck. Of course one colossal Kemp/LaRoche trade blunder will probably change all that, but until he does it, I can't hate Ned because he might do something so dumb.
No. Clearly we need a good scapegoat in these Pierre-less days. I pick Mark Sweeney.
Mark Sweeney so far this year batted .094/.181/.125. Thats an OPS+ of -18. Clearly, horrifically awful numbers. Makes Andruw Jones (version 2008) look like an MVP. Now wait a minute, someone is probably huffing (You know you were huffing. Breath. There you go. Nice and easy.), he may have been titanically, super-awfuleese with cheese on top, but for only 64 at bats. How much impact could he possible have had?
True, 64 at bats, but he hit them over the course of 60 games. That is a very high game-to-atbat ratio. Recall that he was our premier pinch hitter. The guy we always brought in to hit in the highest leverage situations possible. Late and close? Runners in scoring position? Mark Sweeney was the guy at bat. And striking out a third of the time. Getting a hit less than one time in 10.
As I am generally screwing around I am not going to go back and figure out the number of men he actually left in scoring position. He did manage 3 RBIs on 6 hits and 1 SF. If Sweeney could have just hit .250, getting 10 more hits with an accompanying increase in power, he could have probably driven in 5-7 more runs, most in the late innings of the closest games. How many 1-run games did the Dodgers lose?
As of today we are tied for first. So tell me honestly that Sweeney being that bad had a negligible impact.
OK. Clearly Sweeney is the not the reason we are not in sole possession of first. And this was one of those things that was not anybody's fault. Sweeney has been a great pinch hitter his entire career. It took some time to figure out something was really wrong and not just a fluke. Can't blame Torre for that. Did he play injured and hide it, hurting his team? Maybe.
I just wanted to point out that the generally overlooked go-to pinch hitter can have an effect on their team beyond just the small number of at bats they represent, exactly because they end up always being used in the highest leverage situations. Not on the scale of an injury to your starting shortstop, but probably has a much greater effect than what utility infielders you carry on the bench.
OK, that's not true. The purpose of this blog is to point out that Juan Pierre is an overvalued player and should not be played or paid as much as he is. It just happens to be that when one spends all their time looking at the Dodger club through those particular goggles, it often ends up sounding like we blame everything on poor Pierre. Well, maybe Humma does, but I don't. As Humma has not deigned to post since opening day, we'll just leave him out of this for now.
I also don't blame everything on Ned Colletti. I found several of his trades truly baffling. Lugo? Navarro (now all-star Navarro) for a bag of balls? Loaiza? But none of those were team killers. Here is what has been team killing (or at least wounding): Jones, Schmidt, Furcal injured for most of their contracts (or, as in the case of Jones, playing as if they were horribly injured). I don't care how much money McCourt has, with 50 million a year tossed away it is amazing we have even a .500 ball club. The funny thing is, assuming Ned did his due diligence regarding injuries, I agreed with all three of those signings. Furcal, when healthy, is great. Both Jones and Schmidt were premier players signed to very short term contracts. It is difficult to fault Colletti for not predicting the future better. I wish Ned had pushed his managers harder to play the younger players, but generally I still find his term at GM mediocre with a healthy does of unluck. Of course one colossal Kemp/LaRoche trade blunder will probably change all that, but until he does it, I can't hate Ned because he might do something so dumb.
No. Clearly we need a good scapegoat in these Pierre-less days. I pick Mark Sweeney.
Mark Sweeney so far this year batted .094/.181/.125. Thats an OPS+ of -18. Clearly, horrifically awful numbers. Makes Andruw Jones (version 2008) look like an MVP. Now wait a minute, someone is probably huffing (You know you were huffing. Breath. There you go. Nice and easy.), he may have been titanically, super-awfuleese with cheese on top, but for only 64 at bats. How much impact could he possible have had?
True, 64 at bats, but he hit them over the course of 60 games. That is a very high game-to-atbat ratio. Recall that he was our premier pinch hitter. The guy we always brought in to hit in the highest leverage situations possible. Late and close? Runners in scoring position? Mark Sweeney was the guy at bat. And striking out a third of the time. Getting a hit less than one time in 10.
As I am generally screwing around I am not going to go back and figure out the number of men he actually left in scoring position. He did manage 3 RBIs on 6 hits and 1 SF. If Sweeney could have just hit .250, getting 10 more hits with an accompanying increase in power, he could have probably driven in 5-7 more runs, most in the late innings of the closest games. How many 1-run games did the Dodgers lose?
As of today we are tied for first. So tell me honestly that Sweeney being that bad had a negligible impact.
OK. Clearly Sweeney is the not the reason we are not in sole possession of first. And this was one of those things that was not anybody's fault. Sweeney has been a great pinch hitter his entire career. It took some time to figure out something was really wrong and not just a fluke. Can't blame Torre for that. Did he play injured and hide it, hurting his team? Maybe.
I just wanted to point out that the generally overlooked go-to pinch hitter can have an effect on their team beyond just the small number of at bats they represent, exactly because they end up always being used in the highest leverage situations. Not on the scale of an injury to your starting shortstop, but probably has a much greater effect than what utility infielders you carry on the bench.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Juan Pierre Injured
As much as we here at the OutWatch would like to see Pierre benched, no one deserves to be injured. Pierre will be out four to six weeks with a sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his left knee. We wish Pierre a rapid recovery. We also wish Delwyn Young a chance to show what he can do. But enough about that for now.
By the way, that now makes 10 players on the Dodgers' DL. We are six games under .500, but still in 2nd place and only 3.5 back of the Diamondbacks. Go NL West! The pitching just seems to get better and better, so we just need to get some hitters hitting. So hit already! (I am looking at you Jeff Kent...)
For obvious reasons there may be fewer total posts or at least rants about non-Pierre topics, for I'd say about a month and a half.
By the way, that now makes 10 players on the Dodgers' DL. We are six games under .500, but still in 2nd place and only 3.5 back of the Diamondbacks. Go NL West! The pitching just seems to get better and better, so we just need to get some hitters hitting. So hit already! (I am looking at you Jeff Kent...)
For obvious reasons there may be fewer total posts or at least rants about non-Pierre topics, for I'd say about a month and a half.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Just Some Numbers
Here are some bad numbers from Juan Pierre:
.280/.332/.323/.655 ; OPS+ = 72 ; EqA = .251
That OBP and SLG are just painful. Consider again this is our starting LEFT FIELDER and it really makes you sigh.
Here are some decent numbers:
29 SB, CS 7, for a 81% success rate
His success rate has taken a little dip, but he still above his career rates. He was caught stealing just 5 games ago. With numbers this small (7 CS) one has to be careful not to make too much of minor variations caused by just how recently he was last caught. Base stealing still looks very solid for Pierre and I would not be surprised to see him finish with a very respectable 85% success rate. It does not, however, even begin to make up for his terrible OPS.
Here is a less numbery tidbit:
Juan has not taken a walk since June 5, losing 20 points off his patience which puts him right back near his career averages. His ability to take walks, which had persisted for two straight months is apparently over. With his power (such as it ever was) completely gone that does not leave Juan with much to offer.
But what choice do we have, I hear you cry?
Delwyn Young:
.286/.333/.414/.747 ; OPS+ 94 ; EqA =.262
Not quite achieving replacement player, but still nearly 100 points of OPS more than Pierre. And this is with extremely irregular playing time for a young (excuse the pun) player who needs it. His career numbers (WARNING, very small number stats) indicate even more potential.
One last set of numbers:
21-28
The Dodgers record since Juan became a regular starter on May 1. Clearly it is ludicrous to blame all of that on one player. Penny has sucked, several key players have gone through significant slumps, Hu and Berroa are mere shadows of Furcal, etc. But come one. Look through the list of losses. Would 3-4 more HR and a similar number of doubles have won some more games? Recall even with all the awfulness, we are still only 4 games back of Arizona.
Think about that number.
.280/.332/.323/.655 ; OPS+ = 72 ; EqA = .251
That OBP and SLG are just painful. Consider again this is our starting LEFT FIELDER and it really makes you sigh.
Here are some decent numbers:
29 SB, CS 7, for a 81% success rate
His success rate has taken a little dip, but he still above his career rates. He was caught stealing just 5 games ago. With numbers this small (7 CS) one has to be careful not to make too much of minor variations caused by just how recently he was last caught. Base stealing still looks very solid for Pierre and I would not be surprised to see him finish with a very respectable 85% success rate. It does not, however, even begin to make up for his terrible OPS.
Here is a less numbery tidbit:
Juan has not taken a walk since June 5, losing 20 points off his patience which puts him right back near his career averages. His ability to take walks, which had persisted for two straight months is apparently over. With his power (such as it ever was) completely gone that does not leave Juan with much to offer.
But what choice do we have, I hear you cry?
Delwyn Young:
.286/.333/.414/.747 ; OPS+ 94 ; EqA =.262
Not quite achieving replacement player, but still nearly 100 points of OPS more than Pierre. And this is with extremely irregular playing time for a young (excuse the pun) player who needs it. His career numbers (WARNING, very small number stats) indicate even more potential.
One last set of numbers:
21-28
The Dodgers record since Juan became a regular starter on May 1. Clearly it is ludicrous to blame all of that on one player. Penny has sucked, several key players have gone through significant slumps, Hu and Berroa are mere shadows of Furcal, etc. But come one. Look through the list of losses. Would 3-4 more HR and a similar number of doubles have won some more games? Recall even with all the awfulness, we are still only 4 games back of Arizona.
Think about that number.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Hey. Ho. He's Got To Go.
I will say one good thing about JP. He is not the reason the Dodgers went 1 and 6 on their most recent road trip. Almost the entire offense sleepwalked through that one.
Having gotten that out of the way, here is what Juan did do on the trip:
7 for 27, a .259 average (meh). He had one double and four walks, giving him a slugging of .296 (awful) and an on-base % of .355 (ok, actually, considering his avg). He also stole three bases without getting caught.
So nothing horrible. Just Juan being Juan. He is still stealing bases at an effective clip (~85%) and his patience remains at a career high. Two months in and Juan is still working walks at a pace he has never before matched. Unfortunately either it is a zero sum game for Juan or age is taking its toll, as his slugging continues its strongly downward trend. Considering he was a 1-2 home run a year hitter at his best, this downward plunge is definitely pushing him near wiffle bat territory. Adding 30 points of patience while losing 50 points of power is not a recipe for a successful baseball player.
Obviously all caveats for only a third of season should be applied, but Juan appears to be on the way to the worst OPS of his career, not a comforting sign for a team that still owes 3 more years of contract.
Let's give Delwyn Young a real shot. His present 32 at bat total (2008) really tells us nothing. Maybe he will fizzle, but it has got to be better than waiting to trade him away in late July...
Having gotten that out of the way, here is what Juan did do on the trip:
7 for 27, a .259 average (meh). He had one double and four walks, giving him a slugging of .296 (awful) and an on-base % of .355 (ok, actually, considering his avg). He also stole three bases without getting caught.
So nothing horrible. Just Juan being Juan. He is still stealing bases at an effective clip (~85%) and his patience remains at a career high. Two months in and Juan is still working walks at a pace he has never before matched. Unfortunately either it is a zero sum game for Juan or age is taking its toll, as his slugging continues its strongly downward trend. Considering he was a 1-2 home run a year hitter at his best, this downward plunge is definitely pushing him near wiffle bat territory. Adding 30 points of patience while losing 50 points of power is not a recipe for a successful baseball player.
Obviously all caveats for only a third of season should be applied, but Juan appears to be on the way to the worst OPS of his career, not a comforting sign for a team that still owes 3 more years of contract.
Let's give Delwyn Young a real shot. His present 32 at bat total (2008) really tells us nothing. Maybe he will fizzle, but it has got to be better than waiting to trade him away in late July...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
10 Hits, 1 Run, 1 Long, Loud Sigh
The Dodgers have temporarily gotten the Andruw Jones monkey off there back, so now all he is costing us is large gobs of McCourt's money. One thing I can say for Colletti, he does not seem to mind wasting someone else's money.
Exhibit A: Esteban Loaiza, who was picked up in some desperate attempt to shore up our pitching at the end of last year. Billy Beane was anxious to dump him. Perhaps that should have given Ned pause, but it did not. Well, the Dodgers have finally accepted that they might have gotten a lemon, which came as a surprise to just about no one who was asked whether the deal was a good one before it was made. Which was also no one. Anyway, ignoring my convoluted logic (or lack there of), Loaiza has now been designated for assignment. So... What would you have done with 7 million more dollars? I would have gotten a bitchin' solid gold Yoda statue.
18 Carat He Is.
Where was I? Oh yes. We are experiencing an Andruw intermission, which puts the Outwatch back on solid and familiar footing. Juan Pierre is playing every day and it is a travesty.
Right now there is double-duty pressure keeping Juan in the line-up. Dodgers needs a third outfielder and Dodgers need lead-off man. We all hope and pray to the God Who Looks Over Damaged Back Muscles that he take pity on us all and return Furcal to the line-up, which will remove the lead-off issue and stop us from writing another "Juan is actually, despite his speed, a bad lead-off hitter" article.
As to the third outfielder position... Torre seems perfectly willing to leave in Kemp in Center Field, where he seems to be doing well. In fact, he might actually be a good center fielder. He doesn't always read the ball off the bat well, but he is fast as hell and has a gun for an arm. So Pierre is playing a lot of left field. One of the biggest available power positions given daily to a man who hasn't hit a home run in two years.
That ain't right. It just ain't. I would go so far as to say it isn't right and now you know I am serious, because my grammar improved (no worries, true believers, it won't hold). So I would like to put it on the table right here, right now:
Juan should be replaced in left by Delwyn Young. There. I said it. And if you don't like him, how about LaRoche who is eating AAA pitchers alive and spitting out their bones. Dewitt has usurped the 3rd base position, so LaRoche is needing a place to play. If we are to keep letting Kent limp along (likely for another month at least), left field is the best place to put him.
I am not greedy. We can start with Juan just sitting out against lefties. We'll see how the platooning goes and move on from there.
See? I am being reasonable. Don't make me angry. You wouldn't like me when I am angry.
[Cue swelling music; JimBilly4 with a thumb raised on a dusty, lonely highway; superimpose growling jade behemoth over JimBilly4's boyish good lucks; fade music; fade to black; one distant, haunting man-roar echoes over remaining credits; commercial for soap detergent]
Exhibit A: Esteban Loaiza, who was picked up in some desperate attempt to shore up our pitching at the end of last year. Billy Beane was anxious to dump him. Perhaps that should have given Ned pause, but it did not. Well, the Dodgers have finally accepted that they might have gotten a lemon, which came as a surprise to just about no one who was asked whether the deal was a good one before it was made. Which was also no one. Anyway, ignoring my convoluted logic (or lack there of), Loaiza has now been designated for assignment. So... What would you have done with 7 million more dollars? I would have gotten a bitchin' solid gold Yoda statue.
18 Carat He Is.
Where was I? Oh yes. We are experiencing an Andruw intermission, which puts the Outwatch back on solid and familiar footing. Juan Pierre is playing every day and it is a travesty.
Right now there is double-duty pressure keeping Juan in the line-up. Dodgers needs a third outfielder and Dodgers need lead-off man. We all hope and pray to the God Who Looks Over Damaged Back Muscles that he take pity on us all and return Furcal to the line-up, which will remove the lead-off issue and stop us from writing another "Juan is actually, despite his speed, a bad lead-off hitter" article.
As to the third outfielder position... Torre seems perfectly willing to leave in Kemp in Center Field, where he seems to be doing well. In fact, he might actually be a good center fielder. He doesn't always read the ball off the bat well, but he is fast as hell and has a gun for an arm. So Pierre is playing a lot of left field. One of the biggest available power positions given daily to a man who hasn't hit a home run in two years.
That ain't right. It just ain't. I would go so far as to say it isn't right and now you know I am serious, because my grammar improved (no worries, true believers, it won't hold). So I would like to put it on the table right here, right now:
Juan should be replaced in left by Delwyn Young. There. I said it. And if you don't like him, how about LaRoche who is eating AAA pitchers alive and spitting out their bones. Dewitt has usurped the 3rd base position, so LaRoche is needing a place to play. If we are to keep letting Kent limp along (likely for another month at least), left field is the best place to put him.
I am not greedy. We can start with Juan just sitting out against lefties. We'll see how the platooning goes and move on from there.
See? I am being reasonable. Don't make me angry. You wouldn't like me when I am angry.
[Cue swelling music; JimBilly4 with a thumb raised on a dusty, lonely highway; superimpose growling jade behemoth over JimBilly4's boyish good lucks; fade music; fade to black; one distant, haunting man-roar echoes over remaining credits; commercial for soap detergent]
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Losing At Bats
I don't want to sound like a broken record, but this blog is all about beating the bench Pierre drum, so I guess it's HISS-POP-BOOM-BOOM-PIERRE GOT NO POWER-HISS-BOOM, skip-skip-skip...
For the onomatopoeiacally challenged, this is what you get when painfully mix a metaphor and instead of going back and refining your prose, you instead charge ever forward like a runaway freight train into a china shop.
Or something like that.
OK, to the point: Andruw Jones may soon go on the DL, his very own knee so frustrated at his ineptitude and the accompanying $36 million-induced Dodger paralysis that it sprang loose some cartilage. So the Pierre/Ethier problem will likely settle down from a roiling boil into a steady throb of daily Pierre-dom. If we can get Furcal back into the lead-off spot I will be further soothed. Also soothing: Juan's nearly 90% stolen base success rate and his continued ability to actually take a walk.
This sort of kills the original point of my post, but I have already shown a disturbing lack of self control (or self respect for that matter) and I see no reason to stop now just because the facts on the ground are now against me. Insert Iraq War Joke here.
Juan has been regularly starting since basically May 1. Over the 17 games played so far this month Juan has amassed 75 plate appearances, which can be compared to 65 for Matt Kemp, 49 for Andruw Jones, and 47 for Andre Ethier.
That's right, Juan has managed nearly 30 more PAs than Andre Ethier. Now Ethier is not a lead-off hitter (although he does ok in the #2 slot), so you wouldn't expect him to get as many as Pierre. And even a young player could probably use a day off every couple of weeks, keeping them sharp. Matt Kemp played 16 of those 17 games and he has nearly 20 PAs more than Ethier. If Ethier were to lose playing time to Juan at this rate over the course of an entire season, we are talking 200 lost plate appearances.
I don't want to get into EqA and OPS+ again this week: the numbers haven't really changed. Instead think of it this way: Using Ethier this way will cost us 5 HRs, 5 doubles, and 25 total bases (looking Ethier's rates vs. Juan's rates). That could easily be the difference in wining 3-4 more games. Joe Torre, please stop giving away Ethier's at bats to Juan Pierre. It is a criminal act, punishable by seven years hard labor doing Farmer John's commercials. Oh that reminds me:
Eastern most in quality, Western most in flavor.
Now I still believe Matt Kemp should be our CF of the future and it is criminal to waste a LF position on someone who will hit 0 home runs, but if both Ethier and Kemp are in the line-up my level of disgruntlement goes way down.
For the onomatopoeiacally challenged, this is what you get when painfully mix a metaphor and instead of going back and refining your prose, you instead charge ever forward like a runaway freight train into a china shop.
Or something like that.
OK, to the point: Andruw Jones may soon go on the DL, his very own knee so frustrated at his ineptitude and the accompanying $36 million-induced Dodger paralysis that it sprang loose some cartilage. So the Pierre/Ethier problem will likely settle down from a roiling boil into a steady throb of daily Pierre-dom. If we can get Furcal back into the lead-off spot I will be further soothed. Also soothing: Juan's nearly 90% stolen base success rate and his continued ability to actually take a walk.
This sort of kills the original point of my post, but I have already shown a disturbing lack of self control (or self respect for that matter) and I see no reason to stop now just because the facts on the ground are now against me. Insert Iraq War Joke here.
Juan has been regularly starting since basically May 1. Over the 17 games played so far this month Juan has amassed 75 plate appearances, which can be compared to 65 for Matt Kemp, 49 for Andruw Jones, and 47 for Andre Ethier.
That's right, Juan has managed nearly 30 more PAs than Andre Ethier. Now Ethier is not a lead-off hitter (although he does ok in the #2 slot), so you wouldn't expect him to get as many as Pierre. And even a young player could probably use a day off every couple of weeks, keeping them sharp. Matt Kemp played 16 of those 17 games and he has nearly 20 PAs more than Ethier. If Ethier were to lose playing time to Juan at this rate over the course of an entire season, we are talking 200 lost plate appearances.
I don't want to get into EqA and OPS+ again this week: the numbers haven't really changed. Instead think of it this way: Using Ethier this way will cost us 5 HRs, 5 doubles, and 25 total bases (looking Ethier's rates vs. Juan's rates). That could easily be the difference in wining 3-4 more games. Joe Torre, please stop giving away Ethier's at bats to Juan Pierre. It is a criminal act, punishable by seven years hard labor doing Farmer John's commercials. Oh that reminds me:
Eastern most in quality, Western most in flavor.
Now I still believe Matt Kemp should be our CF of the future and it is criminal to waste a LF position on someone who will hit 0 home runs, but if both Ethier and Kemp are in the line-up my level of disgruntlement goes way down.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Back To Square One
I could also have entitled this, "As Goes Furcal...", but I used that one last week. At least Martin continued to play. Furcal's absence has pushed Pierre into the line-up as the team requires a "table setter". With the terrible Andruw Jones (Batting .170 with OPS+ of 42) still sucking up large numbers of at bats, it is Ethier who has been relegated to the bench.
Yes, that is the same Ethier who went 3 for 5 on Sunday (including a double), and is batting .306 with a 119 OPS+. Let's use Ethier in a sentence. "Ethier continues to be the best hitting outfielder on the Dodgers; why the fuck would you sit him?"
I know, a questionable use of the ";". May the vengeful spirits of Funk and Wagnalls pass over my home this grammar-eve.
It stands to reason that if you lose Furcal, who was in the top 10 in most offensive categories, the team might suffer a bit of a let down. But this obsessive need for a true lead-off hitter, despite Pierre being a mediocre lead-off hitter at best, has driven us right back to where we were before spring training began. It is a little frustrating.
But Pierre had a hot bat, I hear someone say? Maybe he did. Let's look at the last week's homestand: 3 for 21, a sparkling 0.142 average with 0 extra base hits. I am so glad we gave him the most at bats every game. Small sample size, I hear one joker shout out from the back of the room. Absolutely true, but no smaller a sample than that used for his hot streak, which was really all of 5 games. That is the inherent flaw in "playing the hot bat." Is the player really seeing the ball well or is he just really lucky?
I will admit it is not all bad news with Pierre. He took 3 walks last week as well, for an OBP of .250 -- which is horrible -- but .110 higher than his batting average. He is continuing to show increased patience, which really is making him more valuable. Unfortunately that increased patience has been negated by his drop in power (slugging .326, 50 points below his already anemic career avg), which has gone from bad to "Seriously, I'd swear this guy is using a nerf bat." He also stole another 4 bases without getting caught. In fact, Pierre has only been caught once this year, and that was way back on April 2nd. He has a 93% success rate, which is definitely elite. He could pinch run for me anytime.
So what we need is either a healthy Furcal or the common sense to realize that speed at the top of the lineup is not worth keeping Ethier out of the lineup altogether. Both would be nice. And if Andruw could start hitting bombs, I would appreciate that as well.
At least the D-backs have been stinking it up of late as well.
Yes, that is the same Ethier who went 3 for 5 on Sunday (including a double), and is batting .306 with a 119 OPS+. Let's use Ethier in a sentence. "Ethier continues to be the best hitting outfielder on the Dodgers; why the fuck would you sit him?"
I know, a questionable use of the ";". May the vengeful spirits of Funk and Wagnalls pass over my home this grammar-eve.
It stands to reason that if you lose Furcal, who was in the top 10 in most offensive categories, the team might suffer a bit of a let down. But this obsessive need for a true lead-off hitter, despite Pierre being a mediocre lead-off hitter at best, has driven us right back to where we were before spring training began. It is a little frustrating.
But Pierre had a hot bat, I hear someone say? Maybe he did. Let's look at the last week's homestand: 3 for 21, a sparkling 0.142 average with 0 extra base hits. I am so glad we gave him the most at bats every game. Small sample size, I hear one joker shout out from the back of the room. Absolutely true, but no smaller a sample than that used for his hot streak, which was really all of 5 games. That is the inherent flaw in "playing the hot bat." Is the player really seeing the ball well or is he just really lucky?
I will admit it is not all bad news with Pierre. He took 3 walks last week as well, for an OBP of .250 -- which is horrible -- but .110 higher than his batting average. He is continuing to show increased patience, which really is making him more valuable. Unfortunately that increased patience has been negated by his drop in power (slugging .326, 50 points below his already anemic career avg), which has gone from bad to "Seriously, I'd swear this guy is using a nerf bat." He also stole another 4 bases without getting caught. In fact, Pierre has only been caught once this year, and that was way back on April 2nd. He has a 93% success rate, which is definitely elite. He could pinch run for me anytime.
So what we need is either a healthy Furcal or the common sense to realize that speed at the top of the lineup is not worth keeping Ethier out of the lineup altogether. Both would be nice. And if Andruw could start hitting bombs, I would appreciate that as well.
At least the D-backs have been stinking it up of late as well.
Monday, May 5, 2008
As Goes Martin...
Yesterday the resurgent Russell Martin went 0 for 4 at Coors Field and the Dodgers hot streak finally came to an end. He is only one bat, but he sure seems integral to the Dodger win machine. In the interest of moderating over-exuberance, it should also be noted that the 8 game win streak included 5 games against the Rockies, so what we might be really looking at is a Rockies sucking streak. The next week should tell.
The Dodgers seem to be winning because they are firing on almost all cylinders. The notable exception of course being the downright awful Andruw Jones. As feared this has gotten Pierre a lot more playing time. In Pierre's defense, he has answered the bell. He is batting .324 with an OPS+ of 103. That's better than average. He has stolen 9 out of 10 bases, a sweet 90% clip, which has driven his EqA up to .290, which is well... actually pretty good. Perhaps most impressively his OBP is .395, a full 71 points higher than his batting average (his career patience is .047). Considering his complete lack of power, that is probably as good as it gets.
Of course anyone can get hot. Juan only has 68 at bats. This being the Outwatch, we will be keeping a close eye on Mr. Pierre. If this is really a 2004 version of Pierre time will tell. The embittered pessimist in me thinks it is more likely that the 2005-2007 version is here to stay. My biggest concern is that Juan's resurgence is leading to comments from Torre saying that the reason [for sitting Andruw Jones] was to give a start to Andre Ethier, who is hitting .305 but having trouble finding playing time.
Let's recap the latest in OPS+.
Ethier 121
Kemp 116
Pierre 102
Jones 39
Ethier remains the most valuable offensive outfielder so far this year. In fact, only Furcal has been a clearly more valuable offensive force (several basically tie Ethier, including Kemp and Martin) on the Dodgers. As impressive as Juan has been this past few weeks, let us recall he is impressive for Juan Pierre . If Jones were the Jones we all expected to see (career OPS+ 112) it would be no contest, but he is not. If someone is having trouble finding playing time, it should really be Jones. You can't "go with the hot hand" and play Jones 6 out of 7 games. It's ludicrous.
Now all that being said, trying to win games and get a potentially hyper-valuable tool (Jones) back into playing order is a tall order. That is a painful balancing act for which Torre gets paid the big bucks. I just don't want management being lulled back into pre-2008 season thinking. Ethier is not the #4 outfielder. Juan is. From the starting gun on the opening day of spring training (They use guns, right? Hmph. Well they should) Ethier has easily been the #1 outfielder on this team.
The Dodgers seem to be winning because they are firing on almost all cylinders. The notable exception of course being the downright awful Andruw Jones. As feared this has gotten Pierre a lot more playing time. In Pierre's defense, he has answered the bell. He is batting .324 with an OPS+ of 103. That's better than average. He has stolen 9 out of 10 bases, a sweet 90% clip, which has driven his EqA up to .290, which is well... actually pretty good. Perhaps most impressively his OBP is .395, a full 71 points higher than his batting average (his career patience is .047). Considering his complete lack of power, that is probably as good as it gets.
Of course anyone can get hot. Juan only has 68 at bats. This being the Outwatch, we will be keeping a close eye on Mr. Pierre. If this is really a 2004 version of Pierre time will tell. The embittered pessimist in me thinks it is more likely that the 2005-2007 version is here to stay. My biggest concern is that Juan's resurgence is leading to comments from Torre saying that the reason [for sitting Andruw Jones] was to give a start to Andre Ethier, who is hitting .305 but having trouble finding playing time.
Let's recap the latest in OPS+.
Ethier 121
Kemp 116
Pierre 102
Jones 39
Ethier remains the most valuable offensive outfielder so far this year. In fact, only Furcal has been a clearly more valuable offensive force (several basically tie Ethier, including Kemp and Martin) on the Dodgers. As impressive as Juan has been this past few weeks, let us recall he is impressive for Juan Pierre . If Jones were the Jones we all expected to see (career OPS+ 112) it would be no contest, but he is not. If someone is having trouble finding playing time, it should really be Jones. You can't "go with the hot hand" and play Jones 6 out of 7 games. It's ludicrous.
Now all that being said, trying to win games and get a potentially hyper-valuable tool (Jones) back into playing order is a tall order. That is a painful balancing act for which Torre gets paid the big bucks. I just don't want management being lulled back into pre-2008 season thinking. Ethier is not the #4 outfielder. Juan is. From the starting gun on the opening day of spring training (They use guns, right? Hmph. Well they should) Ethier has easily been the #1 outfielder on this team.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Definitely An Improvement
What A Difference a Week Makes, Huh? Although watching Russell Martin playing 3rd base was a bit discombobulating. One more win puts them back to .500, a result I would be fairly happy with considering all the chaos of the spring training, china trip, new players, new manager, and injuries...
But this is the Juan Pierre Outwatch. As Humma is asleep at the wheel (probably actually asleep in a huddle next to the crib of his very little girl), it falls upon me to push onward.
So far with Torre, Pierre has been denied a regular starting position. Instead the Dodgers are basically using a four man rotating outfield, although Juan has been more often the odd man out. Let's see how these guys are doing. In alphabetical order:
Andre Ethier:
.305/.386/.463, 2 HR, 14 SO, 122 OPS+ ; 1 of 1 SB
Andruw Jones:
.159/.266/.256, 1 HR, 29 SO, 38 OPS+ ; 0 SB
Matt Kemp:
.295/.317/.474, 2 HR, 23 SO, 104 OPS+ ; 1 of 2 SB
Juan Pierre:
.250/.328/.288, 0 HR, 2 SO, 64 OPS+ ; 6 of 7 SB
Ethier I'll keep short and sweet. He is producing as advertised, basically a solid .850 OPS guy. Obviously quite valuable.
Matt Kemp is having a bit of trouble with his OBP, although he has raised it about 20 points in the past week (patience, Matt, patience). His power is also starting to come online. I feel fairly confident that this .800 OPS level is something Kemp can be relied on to achieve. The open question is whether he can kick it up to the next level and keep it there, becoming one of the game's elite players, something he has shown flashes of. He is only 23, in theory still several years away from his prime. Let's give him another 500 major league at bats and see what we have.
Juan Pierre is off to a tepid start, even for him. Probably partially a result of not playing every day. His patience has actually been not so bad. I don't know how much is a result of any conscious change in style and how much could just be because of where he ends up in the batting order nowadays (8th batters traditionally get more walks because of the easy out, the pitcher, batting behind them). He is still stealing bases well when he gets on and not striking out much, but his lack of power is not going to change.
Andruw Jones has just been flat out terrible. It looked like he was starting to hit the ball better about a week or so ago, but he still looks clueless at the plate. I don't subscribe to the notion that a strikeout is significantly worse than a lazy fly or a ground out. They can, however, be a symptom of a greater problem. Twenty-nine times out of 94 opportunites, Andruw has flailed uselessly at the ball. He has been walking at a good clip, but in his case I suspect he is actually afraid to swing at the ball. And if you look at his average, maybe he should be. Worse of all, he has only a single Home Run. This from a man who has averaged 33 per year over his entire career (hasn't hit less than 26 since 1998). Right now he is on pace to hit something like 7 HRs. Low average, low power hitters should probably not get 18 million a year, no matter how good they are with the glove.
So that leaves us with the current dilemma: The way Jones amd Pierre are playing, it seems criminal to take at bats away from Ethier and Kemp for anything other than resting them. At their age and positions, that should really only be like once every two weeks.
Center field is a black hole for the Dodgers, sucking in expensive "veteran" talent that was either over-hyped in the first place or coming apart at the seams in front of our eyes. With nearly 30 million a year invested, the Dodgers are not going to put Kemp in center and play Ethier and Delwyn Young. They just won't. If Jones can't get it together, which just is really hard to believe, Pierre is going to find his way back into the every day line-up.
Juan being an everyday player is anathema to this blog's very existence. But if Jones can't find his gear, I may find it very hard to rail too hard against the decision to play him instead of Jones.
I give you until June 1, Jones. Find your swing or may Juan Pierre have mercy on your soul.
But this is the Juan Pierre Outwatch. As Humma is asleep at the wheel (probably actually asleep in a huddle next to the crib of his very little girl), it falls upon me to push onward.
So far with Torre, Pierre has been denied a regular starting position. Instead the Dodgers are basically using a four man rotating outfield, although Juan has been more often the odd man out. Let's see how these guys are doing. In alphabetical order:
Andre Ethier:
.305/.386/.463, 2 HR, 14 SO, 122 OPS+ ; 1 of 1 SB
Andruw Jones:
.159/.266/.256, 1 HR, 29 SO, 38 OPS+ ; 0 SB
Matt Kemp:
.295/.317/.474, 2 HR, 23 SO, 104 OPS+ ; 1 of 2 SB
Juan Pierre:
.250/.328/.288, 0 HR, 2 SO, 64 OPS+ ; 6 of 7 SB
Ethier I'll keep short and sweet. He is producing as advertised, basically a solid .850 OPS guy. Obviously quite valuable.
Matt Kemp is having a bit of trouble with his OBP, although he has raised it about 20 points in the past week (patience, Matt, patience). His power is also starting to come online. I feel fairly confident that this .800 OPS level is something Kemp can be relied on to achieve. The open question is whether he can kick it up to the next level and keep it there, becoming one of the game's elite players, something he has shown flashes of. He is only 23, in theory still several years away from his prime. Let's give him another 500 major league at bats and see what we have.
Juan Pierre is off to a tepid start, even for him. Probably partially a result of not playing every day. His patience has actually been not so bad. I don't know how much is a result of any conscious change in style and how much could just be because of where he ends up in the batting order nowadays (8th batters traditionally get more walks because of the easy out, the pitcher, batting behind them). He is still stealing bases well when he gets on and not striking out much, but his lack of power is not going to change.
Andruw Jones has just been flat out terrible. It looked like he was starting to hit the ball better about a week or so ago, but he still looks clueless at the plate. I don't subscribe to the notion that a strikeout is significantly worse than a lazy fly or a ground out. They can, however, be a symptom of a greater problem. Twenty-nine times out of 94 opportunites, Andruw has flailed uselessly at the ball. He has been walking at a good clip, but in his case I suspect he is actually afraid to swing at the ball. And if you look at his average, maybe he should be. Worse of all, he has only a single Home Run. This from a man who has averaged 33 per year over his entire career (hasn't hit less than 26 since 1998). Right now he is on pace to hit something like 7 HRs. Low average, low power hitters should probably not get 18 million a year, no matter how good they are with the glove.
So that leaves us with the current dilemma: The way Jones amd Pierre are playing, it seems criminal to take at bats away from Ethier and Kemp for anything other than resting them. At their age and positions, that should really only be like once every two weeks.
Center field is a black hole for the Dodgers, sucking in expensive "veteran" talent that was either over-hyped in the first place or coming apart at the seams in front of our eyes. With nearly 30 million a year invested, the Dodgers are not going to put Kemp in center and play Ethier and Delwyn Young. They just won't. If Jones can't get it together, which just is really hard to believe, Pierre is going to find his way back into the every day line-up.
Juan being an everyday player is anathema to this blog's very existence. But if Jones can't find his gear, I may find it very hard to rail too hard against the decision to play him instead of Jones.
I give you until June 1, Jones. Find your swing or may Juan Pierre have mercy on your soul.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Ugh
I was busy this weekend, so didn't manage to catch the games...
Lucky me.
The Dodger Offense, tepid to begin with, has now become ice cold. If things continue at this pace we will have to start describing their temperature in single units of Kelvin.
If science isn't your thing, trust me, that's cold.
Being 25th in runs scored across the entire major league explains that putrid record. With a team OPS more in the middle of the pack (around 14th) and solid pitching (7th in ERA), we can hope that this is partly bad luck. There have been some positive signs. Jones finally got a home run. Martin has now hit a couple. Furcal is so on fire he has gone through multiple sets of singed pants.
My hope is that they can rally and finish April at .500. They had a screwed up spring training and several key injuries and it now seems quite clear that not everyone was ready for the year to start.
Still, if they keep losing games 6-1 and 4-1, it will be difficult to get up a decent anti-Pierre head of steam. His weak 1 for 5 yesterday wasn't particularly helpful, but he is not the only cylinder misfiring.
Lucky me.
The Dodger Offense, tepid to begin with, has now become ice cold. If things continue at this pace we will have to start describing their temperature in single units of Kelvin.
If science isn't your thing, trust me, that's cold.
Being 25th in runs scored across the entire major league explains that putrid record. With a team OPS more in the middle of the pack (around 14th) and solid pitching (7th in ERA), we can hope that this is partly bad luck. There have been some positive signs. Jones finally got a home run. Martin has now hit a couple. Furcal is so on fire he has gone through multiple sets of singed pants.
My hope is that they can rally and finish April at .500. They had a screwed up spring training and several key injuries and it now seems quite clear that not everyone was ready for the year to start.
Still, if they keep losing games 6-1 and 4-1, it will be difficult to get up a decent anti-Pierre head of steam. His weak 1 for 5 yesterday wasn't particularly helpful, but he is not the only cylinder misfiring.
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Andruw Jones SuckWatch
Forty at bats is too early to panic, but I am now officially concerned that Andruw Jones traded the 'E' in his first name to Satan in exchange for exactly ten years of great baseball skills. Damned Monkey Paw!
(Yes, I mixed devil deals with evil simian talismans. My mind is a freely flowing medium.)
Jones is hitting .100/.217/.125 for an OPS+ of -8. So far on the season he has one piddly extra base hit, a double. If he wasn't still capable of getting walks at a decent clip he would be an even darker, deeper hole in the Dodger line-up. If he keeps swinging the bat like he left his eyes in his other uniform, I don't think he will be able to keep even that up for much longer.
For someone with his resume you got to give/allow a lot more rope, but I think we have to at least consider the possibility that Andruw Jones, often discussed as a possible Hall of Famer, could be done at age 31. Very hard to believe, which is why I supported his signing, but I think we need to at least make room in our mind for the possibility. He did drop 150 points of OPS last season, not exactly a minor statistical blip. I am sure he will be given until the end of April to turn it around. If he can show a little more life than batting .100, I am sure he will get another 100 ABs or so to bounce back, visit a psychiatrist/optometrist/nutritionist, whatever.
I just pray that he does. Otherwise I may be forced to demand that Juan Pierre start over Andruw Jones and at this late date that might just melt all my synapses.
(Yes, I mixed devil deals with evil simian talismans. My mind is a freely flowing medium.)
Jones is hitting .100/.217/.125 for an OPS+ of -8. So far on the season he has one piddly extra base hit, a double. If he wasn't still capable of getting walks at a decent clip he would be an even darker, deeper hole in the Dodger line-up. If he keeps swinging the bat like he left his eyes in his other uniform, I don't think he will be able to keep even that up for much longer.
For someone with his resume you got to give/allow a lot more rope, but I think we have to at least consider the possibility that Andruw Jones, often discussed as a possible Hall of Famer, could be done at age 31. Very hard to believe, which is why I supported his signing, but I think we need to at least make room in our mind for the possibility. He did drop 150 points of OPS last season, not exactly a minor statistical blip. I am sure he will be given until the end of April to turn it around. If he can show a little more life than batting .100, I am sure he will get another 100 ABs or so to bounce back, visit a psychiatrist/optometrist/nutritionist, whatever.
I just pray that he does. Otherwise I may be forced to demand that Juan Pierre start over Andruw Jones and at this late date that might just melt all my synapses.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Empty Outfield
Let me preface this by noting that, yes, we are only six games into the season and that yes, Cain, Peavy, and Chris Young make a rather nasty threesome to have faced in half your games so far this year. There is clearly no need to panic.
But come on.
This whole off-season was about whether or not Ethier was our 3rd or 4th outfielder. It turns out he might be our only outfielder.
All other Dodger outfielders: Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre are a combined 6 for 49 with 2 walks, 1 double, and 14 strike outs. That is an atrocious .122/.157/.143 line, or 300 OPS. 300. That is like scoring a 400 on your combined SAT, demonstrating that you were capable of getting your own name right.
I should also note that Russell Martin has not exactly been on fire, 2 for 21, but he at least has 5 walks and has shown some signs of life in the most recent series. Plus, who are you going to start ahead of him? Bennett? He will come around.
No, the outfield is the place to worry. What if Andruw's performance last year was not just an off year, but in fact the start of a precipitous decline? He will get a chance to put it together, but 32 million/2 years is a lot to pay for a guy hitting under .250 with a ton of strike outs and rapidly deteriorating power.
Clearly Kemp can hit, but if he keeps slumping this hard, might Pierre not find his way back into the starting line-up? Right now Pierre is even more awful (.091 avg), but you know he will get his hits down, get some luck, and get his average into the upper 200s. You can't work your way out of a slump if Swifty gets all your at bats...
And since this is the Outwatch, let me note that so far Juan Pierre has had 11 ABs and 11 Outs to go with them. Thanks to a caught stealing, Juan has yet to produce a non-out at bat.
But come on.
This whole off-season was about whether or not Ethier was our 3rd or 4th outfielder. It turns out he might be our only outfielder.
All other Dodger outfielders: Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre are a combined 6 for 49 with 2 walks, 1 double, and 14 strike outs. That is an atrocious .122/.157/.143 line, or 300 OPS. 300. That is like scoring a 400 on your combined SAT, demonstrating that you were capable of getting your own name right.
I should also note that Russell Martin has not exactly been on fire, 2 for 21, but he at least has 5 walks and has shown some signs of life in the most recent series. Plus, who are you going to start ahead of him? Bennett? He will come around.
No, the outfield is the place to worry. What if Andruw's performance last year was not just an off year, but in fact the start of a precipitous decline? He will get a chance to put it together, but 32 million/2 years is a lot to pay for a guy hitting under .250 with a ton of strike outs and rapidly deteriorating power.
Clearly Kemp can hit, but if he keeps slumping this hard, might Pierre not find his way back into the starting line-up? Right now Pierre is even more awful (.091 avg), but you know he will get his hits down, get some luck, and get his average into the upper 200s. You can't work your way out of a slump if Swifty gets all your at bats...
And since this is the Outwatch, let me note that so far Juan Pierre has had 11 ABs and 11 Outs to go with them. Thanks to a caught stealing, Juan has yet to produce a non-out at bat.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Getting it done
This is Humma, returning from a burst aneurysm -- he sat who?! -- to say that yesterday's finish meets with my approval. Scoring from second on an infield single by Delwyn "Pee-Wee" Young? Yes, we approve heartily.
Having a healthy Furcal on the team might just be the best thing we have going -- and as someone who has drunk deeply at the cooler of Kemp-Loney-Martin-Ethier-DeWitt-Billingsley-Broxton manlove, that is a great compliment indeed.
What I was happy to see last night was the patient Dodgers -- the Dodgers who worked Matt Cain to the tune of 113 pitches. Even Pierre got into the act, working a count full. It didn't work itself into runs -- though I was convinced that it would happen in the fateful 6th, it didn't -- it is still the right approach. And it DID eventually pay off against the weak, weak Giant bullpen. Keep it up, friends.
In other news, today's lineup meets with the Humma Kavula seal of approval:
Rafael Furcal, SS
Russell Martin, C
Andre Ethier, LF
Jeff Kent, 2B
Andruw Jones, CF
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Blake DeWitt, 3B
Chad Billingsley, P
Best possible lineup under the circumstances. Not a weak spot 1-7, and even the eight-spot has been holding his own so far.
Bring your brooms, lads.
Having a healthy Furcal on the team might just be the best thing we have going -- and as someone who has drunk deeply at the cooler of Kemp-Loney-Martin-Ethier-DeWitt-Billingsley-Broxton manlove, that is a great compliment indeed.
What I was happy to see last night was the patient Dodgers -- the Dodgers who worked Matt Cain to the tune of 113 pitches. Even Pierre got into the act, working a count full. It didn't work itself into runs -- though I was convinced that it would happen in the fateful 6th, it didn't -- it is still the right approach. And it DID eventually pay off against the weak, weak Giant bullpen. Keep it up, friends.
In other news, today's lineup meets with the Humma Kavula seal of approval:
Rafael Furcal, SS
Russell Martin, C
Andre Ethier, LF
Jeff Kent, 2B
Andruw Jones, CF
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Blake DeWitt, 3B
Chad Billingsley, P
Best possible lineup under the circumstances. Not a weak spot 1-7, and even the eight-spot has been holding his own so far.
Bring your brooms, lads.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
ap &bull o &bull plec &bull tic
adjective informal
1) overcome with anger; extremely indignant
: Humma was apoplectic with rage at the decision.
2) dated relating to or denoting apoplexy (stroke)
: Pierre's start over Matt Kemp led Kavula to
become apoplectic. He now faces a long, slow recovery.
ORIGIN
early 17th cent.: from French apoplectique or late Latin
apoplecticus, "to be astounded by a poor managerial decision
to the point of mouth froth" (Also see: TRAVESTY)
1) overcome with anger; extremely indignant
: Humma was apoplectic with rage at the decision.
2) dated relating to or denoting apoplexy (stroke)
: Pierre's start over Matt Kemp led Kavula to
become apoplectic. He now faces a long, slow recovery.
ORIGIN
early 17th cent.: from French apoplectique or late Latin
apoplecticus, "to be astounded by a poor managerial decision
to the point of mouth froth" (Also see: TRAVESTY)
Monday, March 31, 2008
Ethier Starts
Well kids, it looks like the OutWatch will be off to a slow start
this year, with Pierre starting the season benched in favor of Andre Ethier, as reported by the official Dodger mouthpiece. Seems being the best offensive player in spring training while Pierre finished sub-.200 sealed the deal for Torre. For now at least.
The good news is the Dodgers kicked the crap out of the Giants. The bad news is Andre went 0 for 4. A pop-up, two ground outs and a line out, in that order. So it might have just been a little nerves/pressure as his contact improved with the day. Could also be he does not hit Zito well. Fortunately Kent and Furcal do.
Martin also went 0 for 4, but somehow I don't think his position is very precarious. Pierre did not play at all, so his consecutive games streak, such as it was, comes to an end. I would hope Torre did that on purpose as well. No more of that nonsense to contend with.
Boy, those Giants are going to be a bad team. Their opening day line-up had a grand total of 78 HRs last year. If you remove Rowand, 51 HRs. Only Rowand has a lifetime OPS over 800 (.806) and most of these guys are on the downward (some steeply downward) swing of their careers [median age 33]. People say they at least have good pitching, but I don't know.
Matt Cain is the best 7-16 pitcher in baseball, but Zito is at best merely solid. Then you have Lincecum and Correia, who are two good-looking pitchers, but both are raw as hell and either one could implode completely. They don't appear to have a 5th starter at the moment, with Noah Lowry (another potential "solid" starter) recovering from arm surgery. But for the sake of argument, let's say this group can get you to the 7th inning in decent shape. The bullpen looks quite shakey, with more question marks than the riddler's underpants.
I would not be surprised to see this team lose 100 games, especially against what I think will be stiff NL West competition. So I guess what I am saying here, is let's see how the Dodgers do when they have to play against a team besides the Pleasant Acres Home For Retiring Mediocre Ball Players.
this year, with Pierre starting the season benched in favor of Andre Ethier, as reported by the official Dodger mouthpiece. Seems being the best offensive player in spring training while Pierre finished sub-.200 sealed the deal for Torre. For now at least.
The good news is the Dodgers kicked the crap out of the Giants. The bad news is Andre went 0 for 4. A pop-up, two ground outs and a line out, in that order. So it might have just been a little nerves/pressure as his contact improved with the day. Could also be he does not hit Zito well. Fortunately Kent and Furcal do.
Martin also went 0 for 4, but somehow I don't think his position is very precarious. Pierre did not play at all, so his consecutive games streak, such as it was, comes to an end. I would hope Torre did that on purpose as well. No more of that nonsense to contend with.
Boy, those Giants are going to be a bad team. Their opening day line-up had a grand total of 78 HRs last year. If you remove Rowand, 51 HRs. Only Rowand has a lifetime OPS over 800 (.806) and most of these guys are on the downward (some steeply downward) swing of their careers [median age 33]. People say they at least have good pitching, but I don't know.
Matt Cain is the best 7-16 pitcher in baseball, but Zito is at best merely solid. Then you have Lincecum and Correia, who are two good-looking pitchers, but both are raw as hell and either one could implode completely. They don't appear to have a 5th starter at the moment, with Noah Lowry (another potential "solid" starter) recovering from arm surgery. But for the sake of argument, let's say this group can get you to the 7th inning in decent shape. The bullpen looks quite shakey, with more question marks than the riddler's underpants.
I would not be surprised to see this team lose 100 games, especially against what I think will be stiff NL West competition. So I guess what I am saying here, is let's see how the Dodgers do when they have to play against a team besides the Pleasant Acres Home For Retiring Mediocre Ball Players.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
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