Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Just Some Numbers

Here are some bad numbers from Juan Pierre:

.280/.332/.323/.655 ; OPS+ = 72 ; EqA = .251

That OBP and SLG are just painful. Consider again this is our starting LEFT FIELDER and it really makes you sigh.

Here are some decent numbers:
29 SB, CS 7, for a 81% success rate

His success rate has taken a little dip, but he still above his career rates. He was caught stealing just 5 games ago. With numbers this small (7 CS) one has to be careful not to make too much of minor variations caused by just how recently he was last caught. Base stealing still looks very solid for Pierre and I would not be surprised to see him finish with a very respectable 85% success rate. It does not, however, even begin to make up for his terrible OPS.

Here is a less numbery tidbit:

Juan has not taken a walk since June 5, losing 20 points off his patience which puts him right back near his career averages. His ability to take walks, which had persisted for two straight months is apparently over. With his power (such as it ever was) completely gone that does not leave Juan with much to offer.

But what choice do we have, I hear you cry?
Delwyn Young:
.286/.333/.414/.747 ; OPS+ 94 ; EqA =.262
Not quite achieving replacement player, but still nearly 100 points of OPS more than Pierre. And this is with extremely irregular playing time for a young (excuse the pun) player who needs it. His career numbers (WARNING, very small number stats) indicate even more potential.

One last set of numbers:


The Dodgers record since Juan became a regular starter on May 1. Clearly it is ludicrous to blame all of that on one player. Penny has sucked, several key players have gone through significant slumps, Hu and Berroa are mere shadows of Furcal, etc. But come one. Look through the list of losses. Would 3-4 more HR and a similar number of doubles have won some more games? Recall even with all the awfulness, we are still only 4 games back of Arizona.

Think about that number.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Hey. Ho. He's Got To Go.

I will say one good thing about JP. He is not the reason the Dodgers went 1 and 6 on their most recent road trip. Almost the entire offense sleepwalked through that one.

Having gotten that out of the way, here is what Juan did do on the trip:
7 for 27, a .259 average (meh). He had one double and four walks, giving him a slugging of .296 (awful) and an on-base % of .355 (ok, actually, considering his avg). He also stole three bases without getting caught.

So nothing horrible. Just Juan being Juan. He is still stealing bases at an effective clip (~85%) and his patience remains at a career high. Two months in and Juan is still working walks at a pace he has never before matched. Unfortunately either it is a zero sum game for Juan or age is taking its toll, as his slugging continues its strongly downward trend. Considering he was a 1-2 home run a year hitter at his best, this downward plunge is definitely pushing him near wiffle bat territory. Adding 30 points of patience while losing 50 points of power is not a recipe for a successful baseball player.

Obviously all caveats for only a third of season should be applied, but Juan appears to be on the way to the worst OPS of his career, not a comforting sign for a team that still owes 3 more years of contract.

Let's give Delwyn Young a real shot. His present 32 at bat total (2008) really tells us nothing. Maybe he will fizzle, but it has got to be better than waiting to trade him away in late July...