Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Just Some Numbers

Here are some bad numbers from Juan Pierre:

.280/.332/.323/.655 ; OPS+ = 72 ; EqA = .251

That OBP and SLG are just painful. Consider again this is our starting LEFT FIELDER and it really makes you sigh.

Here are some decent numbers:
29 SB, CS 7, for a 81% success rate

His success rate has taken a little dip, but he still above his career rates. He was caught stealing just 5 games ago. With numbers this small (7 CS) one has to be careful not to make too much of minor variations caused by just how recently he was last caught. Base stealing still looks very solid for Pierre and I would not be surprised to see him finish with a very respectable 85% success rate. It does not, however, even begin to make up for his terrible OPS.

Here is a less numbery tidbit:

Juan has not taken a walk since June 5, losing 20 points off his patience which puts him right back near his career averages. His ability to take walks, which had persisted for two straight months is apparently over. With his power (such as it ever was) completely gone that does not leave Juan with much to offer.

But what choice do we have, I hear you cry?
Delwyn Young:
.286/.333/.414/.747 ; OPS+ 94 ; EqA =.262
Not quite achieving replacement player, but still nearly 100 points of OPS more than Pierre. And this is with extremely irregular playing time for a young (excuse the pun) player who needs it. His career numbers (WARNING, very small number stats) indicate even more potential.

One last set of numbers:


The Dodgers record since Juan became a regular starter on May 1. Clearly it is ludicrous to blame all of that on one player. Penny has sucked, several key players have gone through significant slumps, Hu and Berroa are mere shadows of Furcal, etc. But come one. Look through the list of losses. Would 3-4 more HR and a similar number of doubles have won some more games? Recall even with all the awfulness, we are still only 4 games back of Arizona.

Think about that number.


Dusto Magnifico said...

Juan took over the lead off spot on May 6th. Baseball-reference has a tool to show you a players numbers in a certain time period. Since Juan has batted lead off starting May 6th, his numbers are

261 BA
299 OBP
295 SLG

That's promising.

jimbilly4 said...

I considered using a later cutoff date, as Pierre was really hot to start those first few days of May, but it felt a bit too unfair to deliberately pick a date starting as soon as he slumped. May 1 was not only the relatively random start of a month, but really was the start of his playing every day. Picking the time when he switched to lead-off has some value, but it should be somewhat meaningless unless he really is a worse hitter as a lead off hitter.

Which he may very well be. He certainly has shown he has stopped taking walks. I am strongly considering making the next post my yearly rant about how terrible a lead-off hitter Juan Pierre is (He can't bunt. Seriously, he is not good at it), but that will have to wait until after the holidays...