Wednesday, August 8, 2007


Another shutout. Oy. Third in four games. That's terrible.

At least Juan played well in this one.

1. Singled to center.
2. Fouled to first. #365.
3. Singled to left.
4. Singled to center.

That's a fine game.

But boy, is my team struggling. Five in a row, 13 of 17.

I'm not giving up on the season, but I don't really have anything to add at this point.

Jimmy Rollins has six more outs than Pierre.


jimbilly4 said...

Maybe you should give up. Last year I gave up and they went on to win 13 in a row. I can only assume a cause and effect relationship.

The more people give up, the more games we win. Q.E.D.

Humma Kavula said...

Maybe I should give up.

According to BP, which runs a simulation a million times to try to guess how often each team will make the playoffs, there are two groups of teams: those that have been all but mathematically eliminated and those that have not.

The all but mathematically eliminated include the Blue Jays, the Orioles, the Devil Rays, the Twins, the White Sox, the Royals, the A's, the Rangers, the Marlins, the Nationals, the Cardinals, the Astros, the Reds, the Pirates, and the Giants. None of these teams has a greater than 5% chance of making the playoffs -- the best of them is the Twins, who have a 4.33% shot.

Then there's a big gap -- nobody between 5% and 20%. With a greater-than-20%-shot, you get everyone else: the Red Sox and Yankees, the Indians and Tigers, the Angels and Mariners, the Mets and Braves and Phillies, the Brewers and Cubs, and the exciting four-way race in the West: the Diamondbacks and Padres and Rockies and Dodgers.

Among these teams with a legit shot, the one with the least chance to make the playoffs -- again, according to BP -- is the Rockies, with a 22.2% shot. That will improve today after their shellacking of whoever it was they played. Next-least shot: the Mariners, but, as an AL team, they don't compete with us. Third-worst shot is the Phillies with a 29.36% shot, and in a dead heat with them... your Dodgers, with a 29.42% shot.

The Dodgers have about the same chance of making the playoffs as Jimmy Rollins's Phillies do.

It's not impossible. Most of these teams stink. It's not time to give up... but it does mean that if the Dodgers do make the playoffs, it will be a pleasant surprise.

BTW: the Boston Red Sox have a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. I would like to see the simulations in which they don't make it. That would be one hell of a collapse.

jimbilly4 said...

It seems like you have given up. Or are taking a breather. Probably for the best. Vacation and return when Dodger record improves.

jimbilly4 said...

Oh come on. A pop-out double play by Juan Pierre and no post? Certainly you can focus some of your dissapointment with the Dodgers into venom for Juan....

Jimi Shelter said...

I agree, jimbilly. He can't leave us high and dry at a time like this. :-)

Martin said...

Think of poor 71and91. Where will he be able to go if this site shuts down?

Jimi Shelter said...

Can any of you stat savvy folks tell me how the Rollins/Pierre race is going? Thanks!

jimbilly4 said...

I believe Rollins has now taken a commanding lead, 403 outs to Juan's 396. I think playing with Juan's position in the batting order and Juan playing a bit better of late are taking their toll.

Juan is only one out ahead of Zimmerman, so he is barely hold 2nd place in outs.

jimbilly4 said...

If Humma is ain't gonna do it...

Juan is on pace for 517 outs, which means it is questionable whether he can surpass the all time Dodger Outs leader, Maury Wills (518 outs).

Juan is also on pace to having his best Stolen Base record of his career. Presently 50-9, which projects to 65-12. Net 53 bases. It won't drive in runs like a double, but it is pretty damn handy nevertheless. Let's give credit where it is due.

Andrew Shimmin said...

Trenchant analysis on the occasion of Juan Pierre's getting nailed at third: Son of a bitch!

Family of Food said...

What the heck Humma? Where'd you go?

Benjamin Pratt said...

Where you at, mac? Bring back the smack!

Martin said...

I fear one of Juan's errant foul balls may have felled our Humma.

jimbilly4 said...

I don't want to start any rumors, but I think Dontrelle Willis may have had Humma kidnapped, stuffed in a dumpster, and rolled into the Marina.

But you didn't hear it from me.

jimbilly4 said...

I imagine readership is plummeting in this Humma-free time, but if my calculations are correct this day is a momentous one for Juan:

He has moved back into the League Lead for most outs, 451 to Rollins' 450. I think the Dodgers have now played one more game than the Phillies, so the lead is not by any means secure. His pace is 522 outs, so he is still on pace to set the Dodger record.

Juan had a great August, .333/.361/.402, quite a change from his season up until that month, which was a quite sad (and consistent): .279/.324/.346
For the moment he is maintaining his hot hitting into September (.333/.360/.458) but it is only 6 games so far.

Finally, Juan is still stealing up a storm: 56 SB, 11 CS, for a net 45 bases and a nice 84% success rate.
Still projects to 65 SB, which would tie a career high.

So there is your Juan update. Hopefully Humma will get his shit back together and we can see if Juan can hold his reacquired Out lead to the end.

By-the-by, the mirror side of the silly Outwatch would be a silly Hitwatch. Juan is presently only on pace to score 196 runs. He is playing better ball to end the year, so the 200 hit total is still within his reach. Feel free to be thrilled or chagrined by this final stat push as well.

jimbilly4 said...

Sorry that should read, "Only on pace to make 196 hits" which hopefully was obvious from context. I believe 196 runs would be the all time record, beating 192 set by Billy Hamilton in 1894. Marching toward a more modern record would be Ruth's 177 in 1921 and Gehrig's 167 in 1936.

The most in the post-integration era is 152, by Jeff Bagwell of all people in 2000. He also drove in 132 that year with 47 HR. He came in 7th in NL MVP voting that year.

jimbilly4 said...

News to the void:

Rollins (484 Outs) has a commanding 6 Out lead with 13 still to play.

Juan is on pace for 520 outs, still a potential Dodger record, I believe. Also on pace for 194 hits.

jimbilly4 said...

I have now officially abandoned all hope. Personally, I blame the Dodger demise on Kavula's abandonment of his website.

I am also giving up hope of Pierre winning the Outs crown. He is now a full 10 outs behind Rollins (482 to 492). Pierre now projects to 517 Outs, 195 Hits.

My guess is that the Dodgers will be officially eliminated in 4-5 games, at which point Pierre will probably see less playing time, so my guess is no new Dodger Outs record, but he will also fall well shy of 200 hits.

jimbilly4 said...

Keeping the Faith:

Outs: 498 -- On Pace For 517
Hits: 189 -- On Pace for 196
SBs: 61 -- On Pace for 63
Runs: 94 -- On Pace for 98

Rollins is at 511 Outs. Pierre is holding on to 2nd place by his fingernails, only two ahead of Zimmerman. The L.A. Dodger record is 518 (Wills), so Juan needs 3.33 outs per game to tie it.

Needs 11 hits to reach the mythical 200 mark: Just under 2 a game.

SBs: His stolen base percentage is dipping a bit (81%) but is still a healthy amount above his career averge (~75%). Kudos to Juan.

If he scores a run per game Juan hits 100 runs for the year. His average is also creeping close to .300, at .294 now. The announcers have already started talking about his push for 300/200/100. .300 average, 200 hits, & 100 runs. If he manages to get to 200 hits in 24 more at bats Juan will likely accomplish this goal (assuming his teammates don't strand him).

If the 300/200/100 happens (for the 4th time in his career BTW), expect Humma's head to explode, as Juan will at best have an OBP 0f .340 and an OPS of 700, both super-sucky. Of course that is assuming Humma's head has not already exploded, as he has now been MIA since mid-August.

jimbilly4 said...

Final Game Countdown:

501 Outs (3.4 per game for LAD record)
95 Runs (1 per game to reach 100)
190 Hits (2 per game to reach 200)

Still batting .294, but 2 hits per game would almost certainly put him at .300.

Getting 300/200/100 and 518 outs would almost certainly require extra innings.

Also, congratulations to Pierre for reaching the 500 Out mark for the 5th time in his career. A lot of players never make it at all.

jimbilly4 said...

Juan will not be denied. He is making a final run at the Dodger Outs record, with his 0 for 5 performance tonight which puts him at 506 outs.

3 outs a game will tie the record.

200 hits, however, is looking unlikely.

jimbilly4 said...

I am sorry, I missed Pierre's double play yesterday (a 6 out day!), so with his 1 for 4 that puts him at 510 Outs. Still 8 back for the league lead (Rollins), but only 3 outs a game sets a new Dodger record. Juan did gain 5 outs on Rollins on Wednesday, so I guess the Outs title is not yet out of reach, but would require some fairly impressive futility.

191 Hits (needs 3 a game for 200)
96 Runs (needs 1.33/game for 100)
63 SBs (needs 2 more to tie his personal best).

jimbilly4 said...

Here is an interesting stat I found on

Juan Pierre has 712 PA and 37 RBI.
The Avg. MLB player, if they had 712 PA would produce 84 RBI.

Albert Pujols (660 PA) has 100 RBIs compared to 77 for league average.

This stat is not entirely fair, as batters early in the order on average have fewer runners on base in front of them than those later, I would think particularly in the NL.

Fortunately, we are given the stats to account for this (and any difference OBP between Dodgers and league average): Juan had 382 people on base when he batted, compared to 453 for the average hitter.

If the average hitter only had 382 people on base in front of them, they would only have had 71 RBIs.

That's 34 runs Pierre did not drive in that Kenny Lofton (OPS+ of 105, pretty damn close to league average) would have.

Jimi Shelter said...

Hey Jimbilly, thanks for the updates. In a perfect Dodger world, none of this would have been necessary!

jimbilly4 said...

Here are the Juan final results. I suppose I could have petitioned Humma to let me post entries and not run these comments into the 20s, but too late now.

Juan was not too impressive in this final series so he did not make a major run at any of the offensive landmarks.

196 Hits
96 Runs
64 SBs (15 CS)
.293/.331/.353 for an OPS of .684

So he didn't really come close to 300/200/100. Congratulations are in order, however, for the best stolen base percentage of his career -- 81% -- thumping his earlier best of 77%.

It was kind of funny, when the Saturday Dodger game went into extra innings I was hoping for a long stalemate so Juan could pump up some of his stats. Pierre was on deck for what would have been his 6th at bat when Gonzo hit the game winner.

OK, this is the Outwatch, so here is the final stat we have all been waiting for. Juan Pierre's 2007 Outs Total:


This sets a NEW DODGER RECORD! I didn't think Juan was going to be able to pull it out, but his 6 Out effort last Wednesday really put it back in play. This is only 34th all time and still way behind Pierre's own personal best, 532 Outs set in 2006, 11th all time.

He finished 8 Outs behind Rollins who smashed both the single season at bats and plate appearances records with 716 ABs (previously 705) and 778 PAs (773 before). Tough to compete with 49 fewer opportunities. He also finished 4 behind Jose Reyes, whose 11 hits in his final 63 at bats (.175 average) were a major contributor to the Mets meltdown... and a lot of Outs.

jimbilly4 said...

Finally (and I mean finally as the season is over and I got stuff to do), for the Juan-Haters:

Juan's OPS of .685 is 150th out of the 162 batting title qualified players in the majors. (last place is Nick Punto of the Twins: .562).

Every player he ranks above is either a SS, 2B, or C... except for poor Punto who plays 3B.

In Juan's defense, while he may be the worst CF in terms of OPS, a lot of CFs end up down here at the bottom. The next nearest CF is Corey Patterson, at #147 and then Vernon Wells at #145. In fact, the bottom 25% of OPS includes 9 or 10 CFs, depending on whether you include Johnny Damon or not (Melky Cabrera took over the position.... and is also in the bottom 25%).

One could argue a first market team should not have a CF with such a low OPS... but then again the CFs for the Yankees (twice), Angels, Braves, and Red Sox are all bottom 25%.

So this tells me even a mediocre center fielder is actually hard to find. Still, 5 x 9 million for the bottom of the list? You decide.

No, not you Humma. I think you may have already made up your mind.

shidoin said...

Good lookin' out Jimbilly4. Thanks for picking up the torch.
humma kavula, don't start something you can't finish.

Unfortunately, like it or not, Juan is ours for the next 4 years.
The outwatch provided an entertaining outlet for the frustration of another failed Dodger campaign.

jimbilly4, are you up for doing the outwatch for Juan's record breaking 2008 season?

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